The St. Louis area is only in slight risk for today, while a moderate and high risk is in effect for areas of the south and southeast U.S. We may still see significant development by early afternoon as a cold pool approaches and a Low pressure area moves just to the south of St. Louis. Temps will approach 80 degrees and this will make for a moderately unstable atmosphere. The increasing instability combined with strong unidirectional shear may promote the development of supercells over eastern MO. Large hail appears to be the primary threat and damaging downburst winds will be possible. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out completely. Put those extra blankets back on the bed for tonight through Saturday night as we dip into the 30's for night time lows.
Update 1:00 PM 4/7/06
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CENTRAL INDIANA
PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SMALL PART OF EASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MUNCIE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 163...
DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WATCH AREA.
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Update 12:00 PM 4/7/06
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI TO 60 MILES EAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
ACROSS TN VALLEY AHEAD OF DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NERN KS. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT/LONG
TRACK TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...HALES
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