The SPC has upgraded E. Mo and W. IL. to a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather for today and tonight. The area is already under a Moderate Risk for Sunday. This is a potentially dangerous situation with the possibility of a few strong tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds.
More info coming through the day...
The PWO :
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006
VALID 111635Z - 120030Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN SRN
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ERN SOUTHERN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
MOISTURE IS SURGING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OK/AR NWD INTO
MO AND IL. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO INTO WRN OK...WITH
A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM CENTRAL OK INTO CENTRAL TX. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON THE MORNING ANALYSIS MOVING NEWD THROUGH TX
AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO MO BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD IGNITE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN OK/NWRN AR
NEWD INTO MO BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN OK...NWRN AR AND SRN
MO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR...ERN MO AND
SRN IL THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES...A
FEW WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..IMY.. 03/11/2006
A marked increase in severe weather potential with upgrade to MDT RISK. Current "feel" in the air pretty much sealed it. Upon checking SPC's site, I wasn't surprised.
ReplyDeleteSituation could get out of control. T-Storms will fire across SW and S CNTRL MO late this afternoon... with large Supercells then tracking into E CNTRL MO this evening.
Just checked MO OBS. I'm very concerned. TOR potential increasing by the thermal degree and by the hour. Dwpt readings in the upper 30s at MKC and STJ
are indicative of dryline sweeping eastward.
Goes w/o saying that this has become a dangerous situation. I'm not ruling out SPC elevating the risk level to HIGH across SE, E MO & N AR.
Stay tuned!
Rich
TOR WW just issued for portions of south central into SW MO. Activity will move NE and Central and East Central/ SW IL could be next. Look for a TOR WW for us by 5:00 PM. Also, a very large hail potential with golfball and larger possible.
ReplyDeletePeople
ReplyDeleteI am eating out this evening about 6pm in Ladue and then a movie maybe I will give a report if we are waylaid. I think Sunday looks like greatest possibility for damaging tornadoes.
Good luck to all
Wayne