Severe Weather Outbreak Today

***Severe Weather Outbreak including Long-lived Supercells and possible Tornadoes ***



Update Apr. 2 4:00 PM CDT

Tornado Watch #133 issued for the area until 11:00 PM.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 133...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL 1000
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PEORIA
ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 129...WW 130...WW 131...WW
132...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF SUPERCELLS WILL SURGE EWD FROM MO
TOWARD IL THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH
THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...THOMPSON

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update Apr. 2 11:30 AM CDT
The SPC has kept a Moderate Risk for severe weather for the entire St. Louis area for this afternoon and evening. This is a high-end Moderate Risk bordering on High Risk and this may become a Particularly Dangerous Situation. Current analysis indicates that Supercells will rapidly develop over Central MO by 1:00 PM or so and quickly become severe and possibly tornadic. This will evolve into a line of severe storms including supercells shortly after initial development. These storms will move into Eastern MO between 3-6 PM. A Tornado Watch is likely for the St. Louis area by 2-3 PM. Stay tuned...

Update Apr 2. 8:00 AM CDT
The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather, including the potential for a few Tornadoes for portions of East Central, Northeast, Central and North Central Missouri, also Southwest Illinois, Southeast Iowa, and a small portion of western KY. St. Louis is near the center of the Moderate Risk Area.

UPDATE : Apr 1. 7:00 PM CST
After a very pleasant day in the St. Louis area, a very volatile and potentially dangerous situation is unfolding across the midwest. Tornadic supercells have erupted over KS and OK this evening in advance of a dryline within the warm sector south of the warm front. At this hour, a warm front extends from a Low pressure system over West central Kansas into Southeast Missouri and is lifting northeastward. A warm, humid and unstable airmass is now moving into Southwest Missouri and eventually into Central and Eastern Missouri by morning. The thunderstorms over Oklahoma and Kansas will begin to move into Central and Eastern Missouri after 3:00 AM and may be strong producing mainly hail and gusty winds. A dryline and cold front will sweep into western Missouri by late morning and will again erupt tornadic supercells which could reach Eastern MO by early to late afternoon. If instability increases sufficiently and wind fields remain highly favorable, especially if the region receives significant clearing and sunshine after the first round of precipitation is over in the morning, then it is not out of the question that a High Risk may be issued for portions of Eastern Missouri by tomorrow morning. This is an evolving situation....