This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

VALID 121712Z - 130115Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW VIOLENT....LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY

A VOLATILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SITUATION IS UNFOLDING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT THAT SEVERAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG DRY LINE EASTERN KS AND EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RACE
EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY VIOLENT...LONG
TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THESE WILL SPREAD A THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING TORNADOES...ACROSS ARKANSAS
INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 03/12/2006